Trends and drivers of end-use energy demand and the implications for managing energy in food supply chains: Synthesising insights from the social sciences

AbstractThe Climate Change Act commits the UK Government to an ambitious 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050; this paper provides a consumer focused framework to devise, inform and evaluate potential interventions to reduce energy demand and emissions in food supply chains. Adopting a Life cycle Assessment (LCA) framing we explore the relationship between production and consumption by reviewing trends in the food sector with implications for energy demand. Secondly, a multidisciplinary review of the literature on sustainable consumption is structured around the ISM (Individual, Social, Material Contexts) framework devised by Southerton et al., bringing insights from a range of theoretical perspectives. Combined, these frameworks complement LCA approaches to mapping and quantifying emissions hotspots in a supply chain in two ways.First, production and consumption must be considered with the ‘consumer’ interactive throughout, one of many factors affecting energy use at each stage, rather than restricted to the end of a supply chain. Second, when considering consumption patterns and how they might be changed, drawing on the insights of multiple disciplines allows for a fuller array of potential interventions to be identified. Given the complexity of the food system and the range of relevant sustainability goals, there are several areas in which the ‘preferred trajectories’ for ‘more sustainable’ consumption patterns are unclear, particularly where data on variation, causal relationships and longitudinal change is lacking. Technical and social understandings of ‘desirable’ change in the food sector must continue to be developed in parallel to achieve such challenging reductions in emissions

The Time Machine: challenging perceptions of time and place to enhance climate change engagement through museums

This article explores how museums can help empower people to engage constructively with climate change, through applying a range of time-related concepts to their exhibitions and events. Museums are mostly collections of the past. Climate change now and future presents particular challenges as it is perceived to be psychologically distant. The link between this distance and effective climate action is complex and presents an opportunity for museums, as sites where psychological distance can be explored in safe, consequence-free ways. This paper explores how we can use museums to help develop understanding within the rhetoric of climate change to assist visitors with their personal or collective response to the climate challenge. Time-related concepts including Foucault’s heterotopia, long-term thinking as advocated in the History Manifesto and the ‘Big Here and Long Now’, are explored in relation to museums as potential tools for constructive climate change engagement.

Participatory utopian sketching: A methodological framework for collaborative citizen (re)imagination of urban spatial futures

Explorations of emerging urban spatial futures increasingly depend on the empathetic interweaving of broad political ideals with grounded democratic involvement. The collaborative planning paradigm (CP) and participatory action research (PAR) have thus gained traction globally, since they centralise meaningful involvement of those with lived experiences of the local environment. Building upon this, we argue that ‘utopia’ can offer an alternative paradigm that enhances citizen engagement, by refocusing urban design and planning explorations away from a problem-based orientation to a values-based one. Through a four-stage collaborative framework: 1. Experiencing the Space, 2. Sketching of Utopias, 3. Sharing of Utopias, and 4. Collaborative Analysis, participatory utopian sketching offers the possibility for richer and wider citizen engagement in urban development processes. The novelty of the framework is its tenets of collaboration, citizen inclusivity, playful experimentation, and iterative reflective activity. Its flexibility also allows for multiple real-world applications in the making of urban spatial futures. We demonstrate the methodological framework of participatory utopian sketching using an empirical pilot study examining the spatial imagination of solar panel futures within a neighbourhood located in Luleå, the provincial capital of Northern Sweden. Thereafter, we provide elucidations on the framework’s opportunities and challenges in wider urban design and planning discourse

Contextualising the drivers for trade: Some lessons from historical case studies

This paper uses three historical trade case studies, oil trade, bulk commodities and containers, to explore and better understand the drivers of shipped trade. This qualitative work explores the relevance of established drivers, such as economic growth, and identifies additional factors which have shaped trade patterns. This work adds a new dimension to quantitative approaches, such as cross-country regression analyses, which although are often used to ascertain the importance of potential drivers for trade may face difficulties, particularly when drivers are complex or interlinked. Our analysis considers inter-related economic and political factors which have influenced changes in trade patterns. The results confirm the importance of elements such as economic growth, openness (such as a lack of tariffs), geography and transport costs and for each of the case studies explains the context which gave rise to these drivers. This analysis affords three main conclusions, firstly distinct trading regions may react differently to similar circumstances, secondly, policies which can influence both supply and demand can have a significant impact on established trade patterns and finally initially isolated elements can (with the benefit of hindsight) prove to have had a significant impact on trade

The Role of Bio-energy with Carbon Capture and Storage in Meeting the Climate Mitigation Challenge: A Whole System Perspective

This paper explores the role and implications of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) for addressing the climate change mitigation challenge. Framed within the context of the latest emissions budgets, and their associated uncertainty, we present a summary of the contribution of BECCS within the Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) scenarios used by the climate change community. Within this discussion we seek to shed light on two important areas. Firstly, that BECCS is a central, but often hidden element of many of the modelling work that underpins climate policy from the global to the national scale. The second area we address are the assumptions for BECCS embedded within IAM models, and the wider system consequences of these implied levels of deployment. In light of these challenges, we question whether BECCS can deliver what is anticipated of it within existing climate change policy

Charting a low carbon future for shipping: A UK perspective

Projected growth in the international shipping industry is set to outstrip CO2 reductions arising from incremental improvements to technology and operations currently being planned and implemented. Using original scenarios, this paper demonstrates for the first time that it is possible for a nation's shipping to make a fair contribution to meeting global climate change commitments, but that this requires transformation of the sector. The scale and nature of technology change varies depending on the level of demand and how this is satisfied. The scenarios show that to develop successful marine mitigation policy, it is essential to consider the interdependencies between ship speed, level and pattern of demand for services, and the extent and rate of innovation in propulsion technology. Across the scenarios, it is difficult to foresee how deep decarbonisation can be achieved without an immediate, fleet-wide speed reduction; and a land-based energy-system transition strongly influences shipping demand, which in turn, influences the extent of required low-carbon propulsion technology change. Setting the industry on a 2 °C heading requires multifaceted and near-term changes in the shipping sector, but these are unlikely to materialise without a major shift by stakeholders to realise new and innovative deep decarbonisation policies in the coming decade

Going beyond two degrees? The risks and opportunities of alternative options

Since the mid-1990s, the aim of keeping climate change within 2 °C has become firmly entrenched in policy discourses. In the past few years, the likelihood of achieving it has been increasingly called into question. The debate around what to do with a target that seems less and less achievable is, however, only just beginning. As the UN commences a two-year review of the 2 °C target, this article moves beyond the somewhat binary debates about whether or not it should or will be met, in order to analyse more fully some of the alternative options that have been identified but not fully explored in the existing literature. For the first time, uncertainties, risks, and opportunities associated with four such options are identified and synthesized from the literature. The analysis finds that the significant risks and uncertainties associated with some options may encourage decision makers to recommit to the 2 °C target as the least unattractive course of action